CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-05-03T21:17:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-05-03T21:17ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30443/-1
CME Note: Northern piece of one eruption that appears to have sent fronts in two directions. CME seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2 and 2-3 frames of LASCO C3, due to a data gap in SOHO LASCO beginning at 2024-05-03T23:27Z in C2 (2024-05-03T23:31Z in C3) and an ongoing data gap in STEREO COR2A. Best observed in SDO AIA 193 as an eruption sourced around N09E33, with a broad, faint dimming seen to the north and darker dimming (spanning E52->E26 and S08->N14) seen to the south. Also observed as wide field line openings in SDO AIA 171. This front is the northern of the pair of fronts observed, and more likely to correlate to the northern end of this dimming. There are no CME arrival signatures in solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-08T15:40Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 45.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
SIDC URSIGRAM 40504 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 04 May 2024, 1230UT Coronal mass ejections: A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), was detected at 21:17 UTC on May 03, in LASCO C2 data. The CME is associated with an eruption seen in SDO/AIA 193 at 20:48 UTC. Further analysis is ongoing. SIDC URSIGRAM 40505 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 05 May 2024, 1230UT Coronal mass ejections: ... Further analysis of a CME, detected at 21:17 UTC on May 03 in LASCO C2 data, shows a possible glancing blow at Earth on May 08.Lead Time: 76.32 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2024-05-05T11:21Z
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